The greater authority of the Lieutenant Governor in Jammu and Kashmir to induct his chosen individuals as nominated MLAs before the formation of the Assembly after the elections could mean that the BJP is likely to gain the upper hand in the Assembly if the National Conference-Congress alliance falls short of a clear majority.
According to the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, the LG will nominate five MLAs based on advice from the Union Home Ministry, which will include two women, two representatives from Kashmiri migrants, and one refugee from Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK).
Political analysts suggest that these nominations may play a crucial role in determining the new government’s composition, particularly if the opposition struggles to reach the majority mark, The Wire reported.
Currently, the Jammu and Kashmir assembly consists of 90 seats, and with the nomination of five MLAs, its effective strength would rise to 95, raising the threshold for a majority from 46 to 48. This means that the opposition coalition must secure 48 elected seats to form a government, while the BJP could potentially achieve a majority with just 43 elected MLAs, given the advantage of the nominated members who are sure to be handpicked by the Centre to support the BJP.
The opposition has responded against the proposed nominations, characterising them as undemocratic and unconstitutional. They argue that the right to form a government should rest with the elected MLAs of whichever party or coalition achieves a majority in the elections. The Congress unit in Jammu and Kashmir has stated that any nominations made before the formation of a government would undermine the democratic process and the people's mandate.
The National Conference has similarly condemned the move, asserting that the power to nominate MLAs should solely reside with an elected government. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has expressed concerns that such a decision constitutes an affront to the democratic institutions in the region and criticises the BJP for potentially compromising national interests.
Organisations representing PoJK refugees have voiced apprehension regarding the appointment of a political nominee for the seat reserved for them. They have urged the LG to consider a non-political representative who genuinely addresses the needs of the displaced community, rather than treating the reserved seat as a political opportunity.
It is noteworthy that there is currently no provision for nominating MLAs in any state assembly other than in Union Territories like Puducherry and Jammu and Kashmir. The nomination of two women in the assembly is a continuation of the earlier provisions retained by the Union Government in 2019. However, the inclusion of two seats for Kashmiri migrants and one for PoJK refugees was introduced in 2023, following recommendations from the delimitation commission.