As the dust settled on the Assembly elections across Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry on Wednesday, an emphatic anti-incumbency wave appeared to sweep through Kerala even as neighbouring Tamil Nadu seemed poised to reaffirm continuity, while West Bengal and Assam looked set to consolidate the BJP’s expanding political footprint, according to a barrage of exit-poll projections released after the culmination of voting.
In Kerala, where the electoral contest had steadily hardened into a referendum on the second term of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and the Left Democratic Front (LDF), most exit polls indicated a formidable resurgence for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), which is projected to breach the majority threshold of 71 seats in the 140-member Assembly and potentially reclaim power after a decade in the Opposition.
People’s Pulse projected the UDF securing between 75 and 85 seats, while PMARQ and Matrize echoed similar forecasts.
Axis My India projected the UDF’s vote share at nearly 44 per cent, considerably ahead of the LDF’s estimated 39 per cent, while the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) remained confined to a peripheral yet strategically hopeful position with around 14 per cent vote share.
Vote Vibe and People’s Insight too projected a decisive UDF advantage, though the BJP continued to pin hopes on constituencies witnessing fragmented triangular contests.
Across the border in Tamil Nadu, however, anti-incumbency appeared considerably blunted, with most exit polls forecasting a renewed mandate for Chief Minister MK Stalin and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance.
People’s Pulse projected the alliance winning between 125 and 145 seats in the 234-member Assembly, comfortably above the majority mark of 118, while the AIADMK-led front was projected to remain substantially behind.
The emergence of actor-turned-politician C Joseph Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) nevertheless injected a disruptive dimension into the electoral landscape, with several surveys predicting the fledgling formation could secure a notable tally capable of unsettling established equations.
Axis My India, however, produced sharply divergent estimates, projecting a dramatically competitive contest involving the DMK alliance, AIADMK combine and TVK.
In West Bengal, the electoral narrative appeared even more politically combustible, with nearly all exit polls forecasting a sweeping BJP breakthrough in the fiercely contested 294-member Assembly.
P-Marq, Praja Poll and Matriz projected the saffron party crossing the crucial 148-seat majority mark, thereby placing Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) under severe electoral siege. People's Pulse remained the lone outlier, projecting the TMC retaining power with the BJP restricted to around 100 seats.
Assam too appeared inclined towards political continuity, with most surveys predicting the BJP would comfortably retain power in the 126-member Assembly under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Axis My India projected the BJP securing between 88 and 100 seats, while Congress was forecast to trail substantially behind.
In Puducherry, exit polls overwhelmingly projected the AINRC-led NDA alliance retaining power with a commanding majority in the 30-member Assembly.
The elections, marked by exceptionally high voter participation across states, witnessed turnout figures surpassing 90 per cent in parts of West Bengal and Puducherry, while Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala also recorded robust polling percentages.