The Congress is poised for a resurgence in the upcoming 2024 general elections, challenging the dominance of the BJP with political analysts closely watching the dynamics, as a 9-10% swing in vote share has historically resulted in dramatic shifts in seat counts.
The Congress strategists believe that even a modest increase in their vote share could translate into gains, potentially altering the political landscape.
The BJP, which secured 303 seats with a 37.36% vote share in 2019, is being projected as an impregnable force by many pollsters. However, historical precedents suggest that a relatively small decline in vote share can lead to a significant loss in seats, suggested Sanjay K Jha in an article in The Wire.
For instance, the Congress saw a dramatic drop from 404 seats in 1984 to 197 seats in 1989 with only a 9.57% decrease in vote share. Similarly, in 2014, the Congress dropped to 44 seats from 206 in 2009 with just a 9.03% reduction in vote share, says the article.
The Congress is banking on several factors to boost its performance in the upcoming elections. The party has been out of power for a decade, and this lack of anti-incumbency is expected to work in its favour.
Besides, there are no major emotive issues such as the Pulwama-Balakot incident that had previously galvanized support for the BJP. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi had anticipated that the Ram temple issue would be a central theme, it appears to have had a limited impact on voter motivation.
Economic concerns such as price rise, unemployment, and the caste census, along with fears about the constitution, have dominated the electoral discourse. These issues have resonated with voters, providing the Congress with an opportunity to gain traction.
The party's alliances in key states, including Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Delhi, and Jharkhand, are expected to further bolster its chances. Even in Gujarat, traditionally a BJP stronghold, the Congress has aligned with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to consolidate anti-BJP votes.
Congress leaders are optimistic about a significant shift in voter sentiment. They anticipate at least a 5% increase in vote share due to alliances and the prevailing economic and social issues. This could potentially push the Congress vote share to around 30%, resulting in a gain of 80 to 100 seats.
According to party strategists, this would place the Congress in a much stronger position, possibly crossing the 150-seat mark, while the BJP could fall below 200 seats if it loses around 10% of its vote share.
States like Haryana are seen as bellwethers, indicating broader national trends. The Congress has reported surprising levels of support in Haryana, which could translate into winning seven to eight seats.
This, in turn, suggests a broader decline for the BJP across the country. Similarly, in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress-SP alliance has seen an unexpected surge in support, particularly in eastern regions, leading to predictions of a much closer contest than initially anticipated.
While the BJP has maintained a confident public stance, with leaders like Home Minister Amit Shah asserting that the party will surpass 300 seats, internal assessments and ground reports suggest otherwise.
The BJP's superior booth management and substantial resources are acknowledged, but the prevailing public sentiment appears to be against the party. Issues such as price rise, unemployment, the Agniveer scheme, and concerns about constitutional threats have created a significant backlash against Modi's administration.
The Congress is cautiously optimistic, believing that the ground realities favour a significant rebound, while the BJP is working to counter the narrative of a decline.