Congress calls 7.8% GDP growth “simple arithmetic”, cites ₹43 lakh crore revision
The Congress has questioned the Union government’s claim of 7.8 per cent GDP growth in the April–June 2026 quarter, alleging that the figure is inflated by downward revisions to previous estimates and an inflation measure that does not reflect household prices.
In a statement on Thursday, Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh said the growth number looked strong only because the base against which it was measured had been repeatedly shrunk. He pointed out that the GDP estimate for the April–June 2025 quarter was revised down from about ₹86 lakh crore to roughly ₹80 lakh crore.
“If you keep shrinking the base you’re comparing against, this year’s number will automatically look much bigger than it really is, even if nothing has actually changed on the ground. That is simple arithmetic, not economic growth,” Ramesh said. Citing former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg, he said that without the base revision, nominal growth would be closer to 2.6 per cent rather than the 10.3 per cent claimed by the government, and real growth after adjusting for inflation would be “basically zero — nowhere near 7.8 per cent”.
Ramesh alleged that under the “new series”, nominal GDP figures for almost every quarter since 2022–23 had been revised down, with annual estimates reduced by between ₹8 lakh crore and ₹12 lakh crore. Over four years, he said, this amounted to a cumulative downward revision of ₹43 lakh crore in the estimated size of the economy. He asked the government to explain how a methodological change could lead to such a large correction and what components drove the revision.
The Congress leader also challenged the inflation measure used to compute real GDP. He said the government’s GDP deflator for the quarter was 2.5 per cent, well below retail inflation of 3.9 per cent and wholesale inflation of 9.4 per cent, and noted sharp increases in prices of onions, tomatoes, dal, cooking oil and milk. While the gap between the deflator and household inflation is usually 1–1.3 percentage points, he said it had widened to 3.4 percentage points, apparently the largest on record. “Use a deflator closer to what people are actually experiencing, and that 7.8 per cent figure comes down considerably, perhaps to somewhere around 4–6 per cent, if not lower,” Ramesh said.
Ramesh said the weakest parts of the government’s data were manufacturing and consumption. Citing Garg, he said manufacturing gross value added had shrunk by 5.2 per cent year-on-year and private consumption had fallen by 5.4 per cent. He pointed to the HSBC manufacturing PMI, which fell to a five-year low of 52.8 in August, with new orders and output growth slowing and employment contracting for the first time in two-and-a-half years.
He argued that manufacturing had stagnated because the government had failed to expand the sector’s base, while consumption had weakened as runaway inflation eroded purchasing power. Ramesh also recalled earlier concerns about India’s GDP data, including from former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian and the IMF’s May 2025 assessment, which gave India’s national accounts a “C” grade.
The Congress asked the government to disclose who was consulted in developing the new methodology, which components drove the ₹43 lakh crore revision, and why a deflation method that, in its view, understated inflation was used to calculate real GDP.