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Chennai: An oil tanker bound for India carrying Russian crude has unexpectedly changed course in the Baltic Sea, sparking concerns about potential disruptions in the flow of Russian oil to India, according to a Bloomberg report on Wednesday.
The incident comes in the wake of new US sanctions on Russian oil giants, which have created uncertainty among Indian refiners that have come to depend on discounted Russian crude.
The vessel, named Furia, reportedly loaded around 730,000 barrels of Urals crude from Russia’s Primorsk port and was initially headed for Sikka port in Gujarat. But after reaching the Fehmarn Belt between Denmark and Germany, it reversed direction and later updated its destination to Port Said in Egypt. Industry observers believe the sudden change may be linked to complications involving shipping logistics, insurance coverage, or compliance challenges triggered by the latest round of sanctions.
The new US restrictions target leading Russian oil companies such as Rosneft and Lukoil and require that all existing transactions be concluded by November 21. Analysts say this development could pose significant hurdles for India’s continued imports of Russian oil, which have played a vital role in the country’s energy security strategy since 2022.
Both private and state-run Indian refiners are reportedly reassessing their agreements with Russian oil suppliers in light of the new US sanctions. Preliminary assessments indicate that India’s imports of Russian crude could decline sharply, and may even drop to almost zero in the short term.
The potential disruption is expected to hit major players such as Reliance Industries, Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum, which together represent the bulk of India’s refining capacity, TNIE reported.
Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, India has become one of Russia’s biggest oil customers, capitalising on steep discounts that reduced its import costs and boosted refining profits. Any interruption in this supply chain, analysts warn, could push refiners to rely on more expensive crude from the Middle East, Africa, or Latin America—driving up input costs and putting pressure on profit margins.
Compounding the challenge are mounting shipping and insurance hurdles. The Furia’s abrupt course reversal highlights the growing difficulties caused by sanctions compliance, vessel tracking, and heightened scrutiny of the so-called “shadow fleet” used for Russian oil exports. With Western authorities tightening control of global oil movements, industry observers expect that diversions, delays, or cancellations of shipments headed for Asia could become increasingly common.
For India, the unfolding situation presents both economic and strategic dilemmas. Although New Delhi is not directly subject to US sanctions, the interconnected nature of global shipping, finance, and insurance means that Indian refiners must proceed with caution to avoid secondary sanctions or payment disruptions. Government officials are expected to keep a close watch as oil companies seek further guidance from suppliers and regulatory bodies.
In the short term, crude supplies from Russia are likely to remain unstable, prompting refiners to modify their sourcing strategies and rely more on existing inventories. Over time, India is expected to diversify its import portfolio further toward suppliers in the Middle East and the United States to reduce dependence on Russian oil. However, analysts warn that higher crude costs could exert mild upward pressure on domestic fuel prices or narrow refining margins—unless international oil prices begin to stabilise.
The episode also reflects a deeper transformation in global energy trade. As geopolitical tensions and sanctions continue to redraw oil supply routes, major importers such as India must navigate a delicate balance between affordability, energy security, and diplomatic alignment in an increasinglyuncertain market.