BJP’s massive win in Uttar Pradesh seems to have shocked everyone. From common people to analysts and even the BJP leaders themselves, it was something that they had not anticipated. The highest number of seats that pollsters had given to the BJP in exit polls was around 285. And the pollsters who gave the saffron party close to two third majority in exit polls were mocked by others for being too generous to the extent of being flatterers.
The BJP win defies every logic in a state where the party had merely 47 MLAs in the outgoing assembly. For the last close to fifteen years, the party was increasingly marginalized by Mulayam Singh Yadav led Samajwadi Party (SP) and Mayawati led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).
Alliance with the Congress certainly helped Samajwadi Party win more seats than Mayawati’s BSP despite having polled lesser number of votes in the state. SP’s vote share in the assembly election was just above 21 percent while BSP’s vote share was above 22 percent. While it helped the SP, the Congress had to pay a heavy price for its alliance with the SP and bear an unlikely burden of anti-incumbency factor.
The Congress party that had touched a nadir in UP assembly elections in 2007 had never expected to do worse than its performance a decade ago. The party could win only 22 seats when the BSP had won a simple majority in the state assembly. Rahul Gandhi led Congress had worked hard for the last two years and its campaign had been planned by famed poll strategist Prashant Kishore who had scripted Modi success in 2014 Lok Sabha elections and Bihar’s secular Mahagathbandhan later. The rout for the Congress wouldn’t have been as bad had it gone solo or allied with the BSP as there wouldn’t have been any anti-incumbency factor in play against the grand old party.
Marginalization of Muslims in state politics
The shock for Muslims of the state is as huge as the win for the BJP. The community that makes around 20 percent of the population in the state and should ideally have around 90 MLAs in the state got merely 22 members elected to the state assembly. In the last assembly election there were 68 Muslim MLAs, elected on SP, BSP, Congress other parties’ ticket.
Despite the shock that the notebandi had caused across the country, and in this largely poor state, the party created a narrative and was largely successful in convincing the voters that it broke the backbone of terrorism and terrorism supporters. The massive propaganda machinery, which the saffron party dexterously deployed in the state, was able to successfully sell the narrative and convince the voters. It also convinced the voters that the notebandi took care of the ‘scourge’ called black money in much of the country.
The SP-Congress alliance or for that matter the BSP couldn’t come with a counter narrative to counter the talisman surrounding the notebandi and exploit the unprecedented trouble that the decision caused to poor and marginalized people.
The saffron party, that didn’t put up a single Muslim candidate from across the state, has once again proved that it doesn’t need Muslim votes to win elections. The party had initially tried to project its ‘development’ face, but later resorted to the same old formula that it used in previous elections to win. Someone rightly said that by not giving a single ticket to the Muslim community, BJP president Amit Shah gave clear indication to its core vote bank in the state that it has not mellowed down towards the community.
Even Prime Minister Modi talked of Qabristan and Shamshan and claimed without any evidence that electricity supply during Eid was better compared to Hindu festivals. In Western Uttar Pradesh, the baseless theory of Hindus’ expulsion from Kairana and other Muslim populated pockets certainly played a role. Though Naheed Khan of the SP won from Kairana itself, the narrative swayed the Hindu electorate in favor of the BJP. Similarly Yogi Adityanath and others campaigned almost everywhere and in the same old rabidly communal style that the ‘Hindu Hriday Smarat’ is famous for.
Division of secular votes
Division of secular votes was partially responsible for the BJP landslide. Nonetheless, the fact that BJP polled close to 40 per cent votes in the state, makes it clear that the saffron party would have won, even if the Muslim vote had not got divided between different competing blocks.
(Syed Ubaidur Rahman is New Delhi based columnist and author. He is also executive editor of ViewsHeadlines.com)