Islamabad's monthly review forecasts more inflation, slow-down in Pak

Islamabad: Pakistan Finance Ministry released its reeling economy's monthly outlook report on Friday, forecasting a bleak upcoming week marred with more inflation. The ministry blamed the delay in the crucial IMF deal as well as the political instabilities in the country for the worsening economic crisis, PTI reported.

The ministry did not reveal the exact figure of the inflation forecast for the outgoing month, while it was 31.5 per cent in February.

“Inflation in March may remain in the upper bound as observed in February when it was 31.5 per cent,” the ministry said.

The report said that the Monthly Economic Indicator, a tool to predict the economic growth rate based on past and current indicators, has further slowed in the outgoing month.

The ministry said that the contractionary monetary policies of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) were not helping enough to contain inflation. The ministry said so, expressing its dissatisfaction with the central bank's tight monetary policy. The bank had increased the policy rate by 3 per cent to 20 per cent in the last Monetary Policy decision last month.

Further, the reports said that bulk-buying during Ramadan could cause a demand-supply gap and escalate prices for essential items. The country has not yet recovered from last year's floods, production losses etc., particularly on major crops, causing the lagged effect.

The Monthly Economic Indicator (MEI) during the first eight months of the current fiscal year indicated more slowdown in domestic economic activities. It is driven by a lack of industrial dynamism, accelerating inflation and negative growths in imports and exports.