NASA updates risk assessment for Asteroid 2024 YR4: odds of Earth impact increase
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Scientists have raised concerns over asteroid 2024 YR4, a space rock roughly the size of a football field, as new calculations suggest a higher probability of impact with Earth.
Initially discovered in December 2023 by researchers at the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) station in Chile, the asteroid has since become a focal point of discussion in the scientific community.
Recent assessments by NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) indicate that 2024 YR4 has a 2.3% chance of colliding with Earth when it makes its closest approach on December 22, 2032. This marks a significant increase from the 1.3% probability estimated by the European Space Agency (ESA) just a week prior.
Measuring between 130 and 300 feet (40-90 meters) across, 2024 YR4 is not large enough to cause global devastation but is substantial enough to inflict catastrophic damage on a major city. The asteroid is currently classified as Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which measures the probability and potential impact of space objects on a scale of 0 to 10.
Level 3 indicates an event that merits attention due to the potential for localized destruction. Levels 5 to 7 are considered "threatening," while confirmed impacts fall under Levels 8 to 10 depending on severity.
NASA reports that 2024 YR4 follows a highly elliptical, four-year orbit, weaving through the inner planets before slingshotting past Mars and Jupiter. If it were to collide with Earth, potential impact zones could include Eastern Pacific Ocean, Northern South America, Atlantic Ocean, Africa, Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
While nowhere near as destructive as the six-mile-wide asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, 2024 YR4 falls into the “city killer” category. The closest modern comparison is the 1908 Tunguska Event, when an asteroid or comet fragment estimated to be 30-50 meters in diameter exploded over Siberia, flattening 80 million trees across 2,000 square kilometers (770 square miles).
Despite the increasing impact probability, scientists emphasise that additional observations could lead to a reassessment of the risk. Many asteroids have initially ranked high on risk charts, only to be reclassified as harmless once further data is analyzed.
For now, researchers continue to monitor 2024 YR4 closely, gathering new data to refine its trajectory and determine whether it will remain a potential threat or be reassigned to Level 0, indicating no risk to Earth.