The future of the INDIA bloc
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Secular circles and parties are attributing the BJP's landslide victory in the Delhi Assembly elections to the negative stance of the Congress, the main constituent of the INDIA bloc. Though it failed to win any seat, the Congress secured a vote share of 6.34 percent. If it were added to the vote share of ‘AAP’, the total could have risen to 49.90 percent, surpassing the BJP’s votes; calculations are that INDIA bloc could have captured at least 13 seats that the BJP won. One should not lose sight of a serious side to this apparently correct calculation. It points to the fundamental weakness of the INDIA bloc. A danger signal was already sent when Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who had taken the initiative to form an anti-BJP secular alliance in July 2023, abstained from a meeting of various party leaders to prepare a common agenda. The first threat became a reality when Nitish Kumar went with his old allies, the BJP, after having fallen out over the question of who would be the prime minister if INDIA bloc bagged a majority in the Lok Sabha polls. Parties including the Congress, SP, Trinamool, DMK, NCP, AAP, Uddhav Shiv Sena, RJD, Left parties, and Muslim League decided to move forward, without preparing minimum agenda, but with a single-issue agenda of defeating the fascists in the Lok Sabha elections, which received huge public support at the national level. Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra gave fresh energy to the secular movement. Moreover, the Congress's compromise on seat-sharing also strengthened people's hopes on the front. Thus, despite Narendra Modi's nationwide campaign with full financial backing of corporate giants and support of the media, the BJP could not win an absolute majority in the 18th Lok Sabha elections. As a result, the current situation is that the Modi government will fall the moment the TDP and the Janata Dal (U) withdraw support.
But INDIA bloc did not perform well in the state assembly polls that followed. One of the reasons why the Congress had to accept defeat in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Haryana was the disintegration of the opposition. And this became particularly evident in the recent Delhi assembly elections. Arvind Kejriwal's ambition to go solo and repeat victory was a major reason for the setback. The heated exchanges during the campaign suggested that the Congress leaders were gripped by a sense of revenge against the AAP that Kejriwal should not return to power even if the grand old party could not win the polls. This was fostered by the bitter truth that Kejriwal came to power in the first place by overthrowing the ruling Congress. Kejriwal was not ready for any kind compromise with the Congress either. When he was arrested by the ED in the liquor corruption case, the Congress did not take a sympathetic approach. As a result, the national capital is now in the grip of fascists, putting both the AAP and the Congress on the defensive. Not only are both parties not ready for negotiation, but reports also say that the Congress is engaged in moves to recapture Punjab ruled by the AAP, through a coup. The fog has not reportedly cleared even after the meeting of party leaders that Kejriwal convened in Delhi the other day. The BJP is also waiting for a golden opportunity to reclaim Punjab.
This underlines the fact that mere anti-BJP sentiment would not become the fuel for a principled and solid secular alternative. It is certain that cobbled coalitions would not be a substitute for an opposition committed to restoring the fundamental principles of the Constitution: democracy, secularism and social justice. The broom party has not displayed any ideological disagreement with Hindutva so far. Not only that, Kejriwal, who is nostalgic about Hindutva, has not yet uttered a word or action showcasing his fundamental disagreement with the politics of hate or cultural fascism. The idea he has put forward so far is corruption-free governance and the welfare of the common people. Riding on these issues, the AAP gained public support to a certain extent. But the election results prove that the Modi team pulled off in showering even bigger promises through the double engine guarantee and wooing the middle class, who play a major role in determining political destiny. The collapse staring at the INDIA bloc can be prevented only if the AAP, the Congress and other opposition parties are determined to carry out a comprehensive reexamination of stances , leading to consequent correction.
